FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

48.48 – 54.52

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

27 – 107

Prediction correct · off by 37 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 180 ±11.7

4638Jagbots

Season APEX 53Event APEX 23.97Rank 11Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

620Warbots

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 30.04Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3359Royal Robotics

Season APEX 29.7Event APEX -5.53Rank 38Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 329.3 ±11

122NASA Knights

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 1.63Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2363Triple Helix Robotics

Season APEX 76Event APEX 14.08Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2377C Company

Season APEX 94.7Event APEX 38.81Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4638, 620, 3359

/ 100 compat

Projected

48.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4638, 620, 3359

Auto

8.8 26%

Teleop

17.0 50%

Endgame

8.5 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 122, 2363, 2377

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 122, 2363, 2377

Auto

6.4 12%

Teleop

38.4 70%

Endgame

10.3 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.22 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score48.5pts

Blue projected score54.5pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -6
Score range: 33–70
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 134 vs event baseline 83.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

180Season APEX329.3

8.8Auto6.4

17Teleop38.4

8.5Endgame10.3

117Consistency116

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	26
teleop	5	62
endgame	9	19
foul	0	0
total	27	107

Result

Final score

27 – 107

Prediction correct · off by 37 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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