FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

17.61 – 32.15

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

35 – 153

Prediction correct · off by 69.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 162.4 ±12.8

2890The Hawk Collective

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 2.51Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

612Chantilly Robotics

Season APEX 45.6Event APEX 23.26Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1793The Aviators

Season APEX 21.1Event APEX -8.16Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 477.7 ±11.7

116Epsilon Delta

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 2.76Rank 40Record 0-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2028Phantom Robotics

Season APEX 124.1Event APEX 1.02Rank 25Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

449The Blair Robot Project

A+

Season APEX 294.9Event APEX 28.37Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2890, 612, 1793

/ 100 compat

Projected

17.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2890, 612, 1793

Auto

15.7 77%

Teleop

3.5 17%

Endgame

1.2 6%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 116, 2028, 449

/ 100 compat

Projected

32.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 116, 2028, 449

Auto

9.6 31%

Teleop

17.8 57%

Endgame

3.6 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.17 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score17.6pts

Blue projected score32.2pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -14.5
Score range: 3–47
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 188 vs event baseline 83.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

162.4Season APEX477.7

15.7Auto9.6

3.5Teleop17.8

1.2Endgame3.6

96Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	15
teleop	12	123
endgame	17	15
foul	0	0
total	35	153

Result

Final score

35 – 153

Prediction correct · off by 69.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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