FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

118.29 – 80.22

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

251 – 120

Prediction correct · off by 86.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 577.3 ±9.3

2068Metal Jackets

Season APEX 92.8Event APEX 19.65Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9072TigerBots

Season APEX 254.7Event APEX 61.02Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1731Fresta Valley Robotics Club

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 37.62Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 212.2 ±11.6

6882Fahrenheit Robotics

Season APEX 69.8Event APEX 28.82Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1895Lambda Corps

Season APEX 93.1Event APEX 32.05Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1885Comet Robotics

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 19.35Rank 35Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2068, 9072, 1731

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2068, 9072, 1731

Auto

25.7 24%

Teleop

74.3 68%

Endgame

9.2 8%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6882, 1895, 1885

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6882, 1895, 1885

Auto

8.8 12%

Teleop

45.3 63%

Endgame

17.8 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.59 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score118.3pts

Blue projected score80.2pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 38.1
Score range: 66–132
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 371 vs event baseline 80.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

577.3Season APEX212.2

25.7Auto8.8

74.3Teleop45.3

9.2Endgame17.8

70Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	25
teleop	128	40
endgame	58	35
foul	0	20
total	251	120

Result

Final score

251 – 120

Prediction correct · off by 86.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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