FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

99.53 – 75.83

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

49 – 33

Prediction correct · off by 46.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 312.6 ±10.4

1895Lambda Corps

Season APEX 93.1Event APEX 35.25Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2890The Hawk Collective

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 29.99Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3136O.R.C.A.

Season APEX 123.8Event APEX 34.29Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 215.3 ±12.2

612Chantilly Robotics

Season APEX 45.6Event APEX 28.96Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5587Titan Robotics

Season APEX 93.7Event APEX 8.75Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2363Triple Helix Robotics

Season APEX 76Event APEX 38.12Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1895, 2890, 3136

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1895, 2890, 3136

Auto

25.2 26%

Teleop

43.8 45%

Endgame

28.3 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 612, 5587, 2363

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 612, 5587, 2363

Auto

16.7 24%

Teleop

37.0 53%

Endgame

16.2 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.41 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score99.5pts

Blue projected score75.8pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 23.7
Score range: 55–121
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 82 vs event baseline 115.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

312.6Season APEX215.3

25.2Auto16.7

43.8Teleop37

28.3Endgame16.2

27Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	23
teleop	21	3
endgame	18	2
foul	0	5
total	49	33

Result

Final score

49 – 33

Prediction correct · off by 46.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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