FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

60.22 – 40.85

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

64 – 97

Prediction missed · off by 30 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 328.1 ±12.4

9403Starstuff

Season APEX 39.1Event APEX 0.5Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5549Gryphon Robotics

Season APEX 254Event APEX 66.3Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10449Robo Crusaders 1

Season APEX 35Event APEX -6.58Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 135.9 ±12.1

539Titan Robotics

Season APEX 51Event APEX 21.21Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3373Team RoboHawk

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 8.62Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2534Lumberjack Robotics

Season APEX 32.3Event APEX 11.02Rank 39Record 2-9-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9403, 5549, 10449

/ 100 compat

Projected

60.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9403, 5549, 10449

Auto

22.1 37%

Teleop

19.2 32%

Endgame

18.7 31%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 539, 3373, 2534

/ 100 compat

Projected

40.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 539, 3373, 2534

Auto

1.0 3%

Teleop

13.4 43%

Endgame

17.0 54%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score60.2pts

Blue projected score40.8pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 16%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 19.4
Score range: 27–74
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 161 vs event baseline 80.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

328.1Season APEX135.9

22.1Auto1

19.2Teleop13.4

18.7Endgame17

67Consistency142

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	10
teleop	31	49
endgame	17	38
foul	0	0
total	64	97

Result

Final score

64 – 97

Prediction missed · off by 30 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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