FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

65.96 – 95

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

27 – 134

Prediction correct · off by 39 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 248.1 ±11

2186Dogs of Steel

Season APEX 57.1Event APEX 4.25Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5587Titan Robotics

Season APEX 93.7Event APEX 21.98Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

620Warbots

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 39.73Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 262.9 ±11

3258MADAWGS

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 35.96Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4472SuperNOVA

Season APEX 112.2Event APEX 49.96Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2363Triple Helix Robotics

Season APEX 76Event APEX 9.08Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2186, 5587, 620

/ 100 compat

Projected

66 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2186, 5587, 620

Auto

10.7 18%

Teleop

36.6 62%

Endgame

11.4 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3258, 4472, 2363

/ 100 compat

Projected

95 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3258, 4472, 2363

Auto

13.0 14%

Teleop

38.3 42%

Endgame

40.9 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.1 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score66pts

Blue projected score95pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -29
Score range: 52–109
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 161 vs event baseline 80.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

248.1Season APEX262.9

10.7Auto13

36.6Teleop38.3

11.4Endgame40.9

37Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	34
teleop	10	67
endgame	0	33
foul	0	0
total	27	134

Result

Final score

27 – 134

Prediction correct · off by 39 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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