FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

83.18 – 0

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

87 – 4

Prediction correct · off by 3.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 178.8 ±12.2

2377C Company

Season APEX 94.7Event APEX 35.89Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8326Hopper Robotics

Season APEX 38.5Event APEX 20.83Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

612Chantilly Robotics

Season APEX 45.6Event APEX 26.46Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 109.5 ±13.3

3359Royal Robotics

Season APEX 29.7Event APEX -3.76Rank 38Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1793The Aviators

Season APEX 21.1Event APEX -12.26Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

116Epsilon Delta

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 0.79Rank 40Record 0-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2377, 8326, 612

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2377, 8326, 612

Auto

19.8 24%

Teleop

52.4 63%

Endgame

10.7 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3359, 1793, 116

/ 100 compat

Projected

-15.2 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3359, 1793, 116

Auto

-4.5 26%

Teleop

-5.3 31%

Endgame

-7.3 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.91 · Blue 0.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score83.2pts

Blue projected score-15.2pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 18%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 83.2
Score range: -15–98
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 91 vs event baseline 81.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

178.8Season APEX109.5

19.8Auto-4.5

52.4Teleop-5.3

10.7Endgame-7.3

0Consistency168

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	3
teleop	57	1
endgame	15	0
foul	0	0
total	87	4

Result

Final score

87 – 4

Prediction correct · off by 3.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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