FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

80.48 – 69.31

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

197 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 59.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 559.3 ±10.7

1908ShoreBots

Season APEX 230.9Event APEX 65.03Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

449The Blair Robot Project

A+

Season APEX 294.9Event APEX 15.75Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2963AnaDroids

Season APEX 33.5Event APEX -0.3Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 233.8 ±11

8230KoiBots

Season APEX 40.9Event APEX 12.76Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2890The Hawk Collective

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 6.55Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5243Aegis

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 50Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1908, 449, 2963

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1908, 449, 2963

Auto

7.5 9%

Teleop

55.6 70%

Endgame

16.6 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8230, 2890, 5243

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8230, 2890, 5243

Auto

9.8 15%

Teleop

36.4 54%

Endgame

21.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score80.5pts

Blue projected score69.3pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 18%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 11.2
Score range: 55–94
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 269 vs event baseline 79.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

559.3Season APEX233.8

7.5Auto9.8

55.6Teleop36.4

16.6Endgame21.2

54Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	26
teleop	92	21
endgame	56	20
foul	15	5
total	197	72

Result

Final score

197 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 59.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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