FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

118.55 – 30.46

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

226 – 43

Prediction correct · off by 60 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 587 ±9.9

5338RoboLoCo

Season APEX 251Event APEX 43.52Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5353LoCo Raptors

Season APEX 74.6Event APEX 3.8Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4099The Falcons

Season APEX 261.4Event APEX 71.23Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 331.1 ±11.7

3136O.R.C.A.

Season APEX 123.8Event APEX 14.7Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

122NASA Knights

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX -7.82Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2988RoboRiot

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 23.58Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5338, 5353, 4099

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5338, 5353, 4099

Auto

42.8 35%

Teleop

51.9 42%

Endgame

28.1 23%

Strengths

· 4099 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3136, 122, 2988

/ 100 compat

Projected

30.5 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3136, 122, 2988

Auto

11.5 40%

Teleop

4.8 17%

Endgame

12.5 43%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.9 · Blue 0.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score118.6pts

Blue projected score30.5pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 88.1
Score range: 16–133
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 269 vs event baseline 78.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

587Season APEX331.1

42.8Auto11.5

51.9Teleop4.8

28.1Endgame12.5

64Consistency138

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	21
teleop	126	16
endgame	25	6
foul	15	0
total	226	43

Result

Final score

226 – 43

Prediction correct · off by 60 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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