FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

11.63 – 69.08

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Tie

Final score

85 – 85

Prediction missed · off by 44.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 236.1 ±12.7

2534Lumberjack Robotics

Season APEX 32.3Event APEX -5.89Rank 39Record 2-9-1Status establishedConfidence 97

2028Phantom Robotics

Season APEX 124.1Event APEX -9.97Rank 25Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

526Saxon Sparks

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 27.49Rank 12Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 144.3 ±11.6

1885Comet Robotics

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 15.31Rank 35Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

4638Jagbots

Season APEX 53Event APEX 23.41Rank 11Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

611Saxons

Season APEX 42Event APEX 30.36Rank 17Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2534, 2028, 526

/ 100 compat

Projected

11.6 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2534, 2028, 526

Auto

3.6 19%

Teleop

10.9 57%

Endgame

4.6 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1885, 4638, 611

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1885, 4638, 611

Auto

19.8 37%

Teleop

27.5 52%

Endgame

5.9 11%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.93 · Blue 1.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score11.6pts

Blue projected score69.1pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -57.4
Score range: -2–83
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 170 vs event baseline 78.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

236.1Season APEX144.3

3.6Auto19.8

10.9Teleop27.5

4.6Endgame5.9

86Consistency68

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	14
teleop	34	19
endgame	15	12
foul	15	40
total	85	85

Result

Final score

85 – 85

Prediction missed · off by 44.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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