FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

43.56 – 87.18

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

27 – 163

Prediction correct · off by 46.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 114.4 ±13.9

612Chantilly Robotics

Season APEX 45.6Event APEX 25.59Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3359Royal Robotics

Season APEX 29.7Event APEX 5.22Rank 38Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9403Starstuff

Season APEX 39.1Event APEX 12.75Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 363 ±11.1

8326Hopper Robotics

Season APEX 38.5Event APEX 9.32Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9072TigerBots

Season APEX 254.7Event APEX 57.84Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6882Fahrenheit Robotics

Season APEX 69.8Event APEX 20.02Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 612, 3359, 9403

/ 100 compat

Projected

43.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 612, 3359, 9403

Auto

19.8 47%

Teleop

13.3 32%

Endgame

8.7 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8326, 9072, 6882

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8326, 9072, 6882

Auto

17.8 22%

Teleop

58.2 72%

Endgame

5.0 6%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.06 · Blue 1.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score43.6pts

Blue projected score87.2pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -43.6
Score range: 30–101
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 190 vs event baseline 77.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

114.4Season APEX363

19.8Auto17.8

13.3Teleop58.2

8.7Endgame5

95Consistency82

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	44
teleop	11	105
endgame	4	14
foul	0	0
total	27	163

Result

Final score

27 – 163

Prediction correct · off by 46.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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