FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

47.02 – 116.46

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

94 – 202

Prediction correct · off by 66.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 220.1 ±11

2068Metal Jackets

Season APEX 92.8Event APEX 14.18Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3258MADAWGS

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 35.92Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3373Team RoboHawk

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX -3.08Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 445.9 ±9.8

5243Aegis

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 38.83Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5549Gryphon Robotics

Season APEX 254Event APEX 56.88Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2377C Company

Season APEX 94.7Event APEX 20.75Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2068, 3258, 3373

/ 100 compat

Projected

47 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2068, 3258, 3373

Auto

15.7 32%

Teleop

8.1 17%

Endgame

25.0 51%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5243, 5549, 2377

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5243, 5549, 2377

Auto

19.2 17%

Teleop

55.2 49%

Endgame

38.6 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.89 · Blue 1.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score47pts

Blue projected score116.5pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -69.4
Score range: 33–130
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 296 vs event baseline 75.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

220.1Season APEX445.9

15.7Auto19.2

8.1Teleop55.2

25Endgame38.6

117Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	35
teleop	37	119
endgame	34	38
foul	5	10
total	94	202

Result

Final score

94 – 202

Prediction correct · off by 66.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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