FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

43.88 – 80.53

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

73 – 102

Prediction correct · off by 25.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 441.6 ±10.5

2890The Hawk Collective

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 7.53Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

449The Blair Robot Project

A+

Season APEX 294.9Event APEX 11.98Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

539Titan Robotics

Season APEX 51Event APEX 24.37Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 265 ±11

620Warbots

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 34.04Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1895Lambda Corps

Season APEX 93.1Event APEX 44.28Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5353LoCo Raptors

Season APEX 74.6Event APEX 2.21Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2890, 449, 539

/ 100 compat

Projected

43.9 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2890, 449, 539

Auto

14.3 33%

Teleop

23.2 54%

Endgame

5.8 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 620, 1895, 5353

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 620, 1895, 5353

Auto

5.8 7%

Teleop

59.3 69%

Endgame

20.4 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.02 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score43.9pts

Blue projected score80.5pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -36.6
Score range: 31–94
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 175 vs event baseline 74.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

441.6Season APEX265

14.3Auto5.8

23.2Teleop59.3

5.8Endgame20.4

116Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	20
teleop	28	48
endgame	25	29
foul	10	5
total	73	102

Result

Final score

73 – 102

Prediction correct · off by 25.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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