FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

118.48 – 115.25

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

38 – 69

Prediction missed · off by 63.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 436.4 ±11.2

449The Blair Robot Project

A+

Season APEX 294.9Event APEX 70.52Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2988RoboRiot

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 15.45Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2068Metal Jackets

Season APEX 92.8Event APEX 32.51Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 250.6 ±11.6

526Saxon Sparks

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 47.44Rank 12Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 97

116Epsilon Delta

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX -5.89Rank 40Record 0-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4472SuperNOVA

Season APEX 112.2Event APEX 73.7Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 449, 2988, 2068

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 449, 2988, 2068

Auto

23.9 20%

Teleop

61.5 52%

Endgame

32.4 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 526, 116, 4472

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 526, 116, 4472

Auto

19.9 18%

Teleop

61.3 56%

Endgame

28.7 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.31 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score118.5pts

Blue projected score115.3pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 3.2
Score range: 94–139
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 107 vs event baseline 115.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

436.4Season APEX250.6

23.9Auto19.9

61.5Teleop61.3

32.4Endgame28.7

22Consistency54

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	15
teleop	9	30
endgame	9	19
foul	0	5
total	38	69

Result

Final score

38 – 69

Prediction missed · off by 63.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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