FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

120.75 – 113.84

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

190 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 42 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 436.8 ±9.8

4472SuperNOVA

Season APEX 112.2Event APEX 47.79Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5587Titan Robotics

Season APEX 93.7Event APEX 18.28Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1908ShoreBots

Season APEX 230.9Event APEX 54.68Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 379.4 ±11.7

5338RoboLoCo

Season APEX 251Event APEX 53.83Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2988RoboRiot

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 31.26Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

526Saxon Sparks

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 28.75Rank 12Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4472, 5587, 1908

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4472, 5587, 1908

Auto

8.1 7%

Teleop

75.1 63%

Endgame

36.5 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5338, 2988, 526

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5338, 2988, 526

Auto

23.8 21%

Teleop

57.2 49%

Endgame

34.6 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.43 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score120.8pts

Blue projected score113.8pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 6.9
Score range: 101–134
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 289 vs event baseline 72.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

436.8Season APEX379.4

8.1Auto23.8

75.1Teleop57.2

36.5Endgame34.6

80Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	15
teleop	112	36
endgame	25	43
foul	20	5
total	190	99

Result

Final score

190 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 42 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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