FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 94.03

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

12 – 90

Prediction correct · off by 8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 89.6 ±13.9

1793The Aviators

Season APEX 21.1Event APEX -8.93Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10449Robo Crusaders 1

Season APEX 35Event APEX -7.23Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2963AnaDroids

Season APEX 33.5Event APEX 2.64Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 377.2 ±11.1

116Epsilon Delta

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 14.83Rank 40Record 0-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2186Dogs of Steel

Season APEX 57.1Event APEX 10.86Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4099The Falcons

Season APEX 261.4Event APEX 68.34Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1793, 10449, 2963

/ 100 compat

Projected

-13.5 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1793, 10449, 2963

Auto

5.0 0%

Teleop

-10.8 97%

Endgame

-5.3 48%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 116, 2186, 4099

/ 100 compat

Projected

94 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 116, 2186, 4099

Auto

35.6 41%

Teleop

46.5 54%

Endgame

4.7 5%

Strengths

· 4099 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.69 · Blue 1.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score-13.5pts

Blue projected score94pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -94
Score range: -13–107
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 102 vs event baseline 73.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

89.6Season APEX377.2

5Auto35.6

-10.8Teleop46.5

-5.3Endgame4.7

137Consistency72

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	3	19
teleop	9	63
endgame	0	8
foul	0	0
total	12	90

Result

Final score

12 – 90

Prediction correct · off by 8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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