FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

54.9 – 44.01

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

57 – 42

Prediction correct · off by 2.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 270.6 ±12.2

2028Phantom Robotics

Season APEX 124.1Event APEX -6.06Rank 25Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

1885Comet Robotics

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 23.99Rank 35Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

5243Aegis

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 36.97Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 223.3 ±12.2

6882Fahrenheit Robotics

Season APEX 69.8Event APEX 23.54Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3359Royal Robotics

Season APEX 29.7Event APEX -1.41Rank 38Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3136O.R.C.A.

Season APEX 123.8Event APEX 21.88Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2028, 1885, 5243

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2028, 1885, 5243

Auto

-2.1 0%

Teleop

44.3 81%

Endgame

12.2 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6882, 3359, 3136

/ 100 compat

Projected

44 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6882, 3359, 3136

Auto

9.3 25%

Teleop

21.2 57%

Endgame

6.6 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score54.9pts

Blue projected score44pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 10.9
Score range: 31–68
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 99 vs event baseline 74.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

270.6Season APEX223.3

-2.1Auto9.3

44.3Teleop21.2

12.2Endgame6.6

72Consistency103

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	8
teleop	34	9
endgame	9	15
foul	0	10
total	57	42

Result

Final score

57 – 42

Prediction correct · off by 2.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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