FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

54.75 – 12.57

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

64 – 73

Prediction missed · off by 34.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 163.9 ±11.6

8326Hopper Robotics

Season APEX 38.5Event APEX 3.84Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2534Lumberjack Robotics

Season APEX 32.3Event APEX 5.37Rank 39Record 2-9-1Status establishedConfidence 97

1895Lambda Corps

Season APEX 93.1Event APEX 45.54Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 195 ±12.2

5587Titan Robotics

Season APEX 93.7Event APEX 7.07Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3373Team RoboHawk

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX -10.89Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2988RoboRiot

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 16.39Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8326, 2534, 1895

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8326, 2534, 1895

Auto

6.7 15%

Teleop

38.0 83%

Endgame

1.2 3%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5587, 3373, 2988

/ 100 compat

Projected

12.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5587, 3373, 2988

Auto

10.8 100%

Teleop

4.1 38%

Endgame

-4.2 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score54.8pts

Blue projected score12.6pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 16%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 42.2
Score range: 0–68
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 137 vs event baseline 74.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

163.9Season APEX195

6.7Auto10.8

38Teleop4.1

1.2Endgame-4.2

63Consistency137

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	5
teleop	36	31
endgame	17	32
foul	0	5
total	64	73

Result

Final score

64 – 73

Prediction missed · off by 34.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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