FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

62.7 – 92.35

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

94 – 136

Prediction correct · off by 37.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 370.9 ±11.7

2963AnaDroids

Season APEX 33.5Event APEX -2.12Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4099The Falcons

Season APEX 261.4Event APEX 65.86Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2363Triple Helix Robotics

Season APEX 76Event APEX -1.04Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 591.6 ±9.9

611Saxons

Season APEX 42Event APEX 28.64Rank 17Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

9072TigerBots

Season APEX 254.7Event APEX 50.81Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

449The Blair Robot Project

A+

Season APEX 294.9Event APEX 12.9Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2963, 4099, 2363

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2963, 4099, 2363

Auto

29.2 44%

Teleop

29.8 44%

Endgame

8.0 12%

Strengths

· 4099 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 611, 9072, 449

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 611, 9072, 449

Auto

23.6 27%

Teleop

49.8 57%

Endgame

13.9 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.17 · Blue 1.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score62.7pts

Blue projected score92.4pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -29.6
Score range: 50–105
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 230 vs event baseline 72.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

370.9Season APEX591.6

29.2Auto23.6

29.8Teleop49.8

8Endgame13.9

157Consistency80

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	32
teleop	37	97
endgame	30	2
foul	0	5
total	94	136

Result

Final score

94 – 136

Prediction correct · off by 37.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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