FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

99.55 – 70.61

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

51 – 72

Prediction missed · off by 25 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 469.7 ±10.5

2186Dogs of Steel

Season APEX 57.1Event APEX 19.5Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5549Gryphon Robotics

Season APEX 254Event APEX 69.7Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

122NASA Knights

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 10.35Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 313 ±11.7

1793The Aviators

Season APEX 21.1Event APEX -9.82Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5338RoboLoCo

Season APEX 251Event APEX 55.01Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8230KoiBots

Season APEX 40.9Event APEX 25.42Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2186, 5549, 122

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2186, 5549, 122

Auto

18.4 20%

Teleop

50.9 54%

Endgame

24.1 26%

Strengths

· 5549 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1793, 5338, 8230

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1793, 5338, 8230

Auto

22.7 32%

Teleop

26.7 37%

Endgame

22.0 31%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.53 · Blue 1.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score99.6pts

Blue projected score70.6pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 28.9
Score range: 58–113
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 123 vs event baseline 72.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

469.7Season APEX313

18.4Auto22.7

50.9Teleop26.7

24.1Endgame22

95Consistency54

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	21
teleop	9	33
endgame	11	18
foul	0	0
total	51	72

Result

Final score

51 – 72

Prediction missed · off by 25 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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