FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

43.88 – 65.98

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

107 – 69

Prediction missed · off by 33.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 333.6 ±11.7

4472SuperNOVA

Season APEX 112.2Event APEX 32.9Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2028Phantom Robotics

Season APEX 124.1Event APEX -14.59Rank 25Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

620Warbots

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 25.57Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 324.6 ±11.7

10449Robo Crusaders 1

Season APEX 35Event APEX -4.85Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

116Epsilon Delta

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 19.13Rank 40Record 0-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1908ShoreBots

Season APEX 230.9Event APEX 51.7Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4472, 2028, 620

/ 100 compat

Projected

43.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4472, 2028, 620

Auto

-5.5 0%

Teleop

34.8 71%

Endgame

19.7 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10449, 116, 1908

/ 100 compat

Projected

66 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10449, 116, 1908

Auto

8.8 14%

Teleop

31.5 50%

Endgame

22.9 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.22 · Blue 1.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score43.9pts

Blue projected score66pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -22.1
Score range: 31–79
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 176 vs event baseline 72.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

333.6Season APEX324.6

-5.5Auto8.8

34.8Teleop31.5

19.7Endgame22.9

108Consistency170

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	9
teleop	76	49
endgame	21	6
foul	0	5
total	107	69

Result

Final score

107 – 69

Prediction missed · off by 33.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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