FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

51.71 – 94.33

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

100 – 76

Prediction missed · off by 33.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 256.5 ±11

4638Jagbots

Season APEX 53Event APEX 17.25Rank 11Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

526Saxon Sparks

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 18.56Rank 12Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 97

3136O.R.C.A.

Season APEX 123.8Event APEX 15.9Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 189.4 ±12.2

539Titan Robotics

Season APEX 51Event APEX 27.49Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

612Chantilly Robotics

Season APEX 45.6Event APEX 50.21Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2068Metal Jackets

Season APEX 92.8Event APEX 16.63Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4638, 526, 3136

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4638, 526, 3136

Auto

23.7 55%

Teleop

1.9 4%

Endgame

17.3 40%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 539, 612, 2068

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 539, 612, 2068

Auto

28.8 32%

Teleop

31.8 35%

Endgame

29.3 33%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.12 · Blue 1.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score51.7pts

Blue projected score94.3pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -42.6
Score range: 39–107
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 176 vs event baseline 71.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

256.5Season APEX189.4

23.7Auto28.8

1.9Teleop31.8

17.3Endgame29.3

134Consistency155

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	25
teleop	60	23
endgame	12	23
foul	0	5
total	100	76

Result

Final score

100 – 76

Prediction missed · off by 33.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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