FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

118.85 – 60.79

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

95 – 16

Prediction correct · off by 34.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 375.2 ±11.2

4099The Falcons

Season APEX 261.4Event APEX 86.98Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3258MADAWGS

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 30.38Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9403Starstuff

Season APEX 39.1Event APEX 1.49Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 203.5 ±12.7

2028Phantom Robotics

Season APEX 124.1Event APEX 26.18Rank 25Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

8326Hopper Robotics

Season APEX 38.5Event APEX 1.84Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8230KoiBots

Season APEX 40.9Event APEX 32.77Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4099, 3258, 9403

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4099, 3258, 9403

Auto

38.9 32%

Teleop

55.3 46%

Endgame

25.5 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2028, 8326, 8230

/ 100 compat

Projected

60.8 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2028, 8326, 8230

Auto

11.4 20%

Teleop

32.0 57%

Endgame

12.7 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.73 · Blue 0.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score118.9pts

Blue projected score60.8pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 58.1
Score range: 40–140
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 111 vs event baseline 115.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

375.2Season APEX203.5

38.9Auto11.4

55.3Teleop32

25.5Endgame12.7

94Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	3
teleop	26	6
endgame	21	7
foul	10	0
total	95	16

Result

Final score

95 – 16

Prediction correct · off by 34.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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