FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

58.14 – 103.67

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

78 – 191

Prediction correct · off by 53.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 317.6 ±11.1

8326Hopper Robotics

Season APEX 38.5Event APEX -2.18Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1731Fresta Valley Robotics Club

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 45.13Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1885Comet Robotics

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 15.19Rank 35Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 598.1 ±9.3

5338RoboLoCo

Season APEX 251Event APEX 42.33Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5549Gryphon Robotics

Season APEX 254Event APEX 44.9Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1895Lambda Corps

Season APEX 93.1Event APEX 16.44Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8326, 1731, 1885

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8326, 1731, 1885

Auto

10.6 20%

Teleop

21.8 41%

Endgame

20.7 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5338, 5549, 1895

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.7 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5338, 5549, 1895

Auto

25.4 28%

Teleop

40.2 44%

Endgame

26.6 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.06 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score58.1pts

Blue projected score103.7pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -45.5
Score range: 46–116
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 269 vs event baseline 68.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

317.6Season APEX598.1

10.6Auto25.4

21.8Teleop40.2

20.7Endgame26.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	1	37
teleop	42	105
endgame	5	49
foul	30	0
total	78	191

Result

Final score

78 – 191

Prediction correct · off by 53.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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