FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

15.3 – 69.07

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

45 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 15.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 268 ±12.2

3359Royal Robotics

Season APEX 29.7Event APEX -9.13Rank 38Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

526Saxon Sparks

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 18.37Rank 12Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 97

122NASA Knights

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 6.06Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 382.7 ±10.5

2890The Hawk Collective

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 3.26Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2534Lumberjack Robotics

Season APEX 32.3Event APEX 10.54Rank 39Record 2-9-1Status establishedConfidence 97

9072TigerBots

Season APEX 254.7Event APEX 55.27Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3359, 526, 122

/ 100 compat

Projected

15.3 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3359, 526, 122

Auto

2.3 30%

Teleop

8.6 100%

Endgame

-3.2 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2890, 2534, 9072

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2890, 2534, 9072

Auto

21.0 33%

Teleop

37.7 59%

Endgame

5.5 9%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.98 · Blue 1.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score15.3pts

Blue projected score69.1pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 17%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -53.8
Score range: 4–80
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 116 vs event baseline 63.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

268Season APEX382.7

2.3Auto21

8.6Teleop37.7

-3.2Endgame5.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	5	23
teleop	24	48
endgame	16	0
foul	0	0
total	45	71

Result

Final score

45 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 15.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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