FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

36.71 – 64.34

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

37 – 66

Prediction correct · off by 1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 171 ±12.2

1793The Aviators

Season APEX 21.1Event APEX 7.41Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2186Dogs of Steel

Season APEX 57.1Event APEX 18.34Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2068Metal Jackets

Season APEX 92.8Event APEX 10.96Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 212.4 ±12.2

620Warbots

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 14.52Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2363Triple Helix Robotics

Season APEX 76Event APEX 13.24Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9403Starstuff

Season APEX 39.1Event APEX 36.58Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1793, 2186, 2068

/ 100 compat

Projected

36.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1793, 2186, 2068

Auto

8.8 23%

Teleop

25.8 67%

Endgame

3.8 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 620, 2363, 9403

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 620, 2363, 9403

Auto

11.0 19%

Teleop

26.2 45%

Endgame

21.3 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.09 · Blue 1.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score36.7pts

Blue projected score64.3pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -27.6
Score range: 25–76
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 103 vs event baseline 64.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

171Season APEX212.4

8.8Auto11

25.8Teleop26.2

3.8Endgame21.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	2
teleop	15	32
endgame	2	32
foul	0	0
total	37	66

Result

Final score

37 – 66

Prediction correct · off by 1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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