FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

58.82 – 0

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

71 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 29.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 196.4 ±11.7

2988RoboRiot

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 36.4Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2377C Company

Season APEX 94.7Event APEX -5.63Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4638Jagbots

Season APEX 53Event APEX 28.05Rank 11Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 410.1 ±12.4

10449Robo Crusaders 1

Season APEX 35Event APEX -11.72Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5338RoboLoCo

Season APEX 251Event APEX 26.92Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2028Phantom Robotics

Season APEX 124.1Event APEX -16.33Rank 25Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2988, 2377, 4638

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2988, 2377, 4638

Auto

25.5 43%

Teleop

27.9 48%

Endgame

5.3 9%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10449, 5338, 2028

/ 100 compat

Projected

-1.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10449, 5338, 2028

Auto

7.9 100%

Teleop

-3.7 0%

Endgame

2.9 41%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.7 · Blue 1.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score58.8pts

Blue projected score-1.1pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 58.8
Score range: -12–71
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 118 vs event baseline 64.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

196.4Season APEX410.1

25.5Auto7.9

27.9Teleop-3.7

5.3Endgame2.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	15
teleop	26	20
endgame	22	12
foul	15	0
total	71	47

Result

Final score

71 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 29.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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