FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

15.02 – 22.1

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

80 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 109.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 530.9 ±9.8

449The Blair Robot Project

A+

Season APEX 294.9Event APEX -13.31Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3136O.R.C.A.

Season APEX 123.8Event APEX 13.68Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4472SuperNOVA

Season APEX 112.2Event APEX 14.65Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 525.8 ±9.9

611Saxons

Season APEX 42Event APEX -1.56Rank 17Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

1731Fresta Valley Robotics Club

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 8.43Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5549Gryphon Robotics

Season APEX 254Event APEX 15.23Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 449, 3136, 4472

/ 100 compat

Projected

15 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 449, 3136, 4472

Auto

8.5 65%

Teleop

-5.7 0%

Endgame

10.2 78%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 611, 1731, 5549

/ 100 compat

Projected

22.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 611, 1731, 5549

Auto

4.0 18%

Teleop

7.3 34%

Endgame

10.4 48%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.4 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score15pts

Blue projected score22.1pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -7.1
Score range: 4–33
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 257 vs event baseline 59.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

530.9Season APEX525.8

8.5Auto4

-5.7Teleop7.3

10.2Endgame10.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	30
teleop	37	59
endgame	21	58
foul	0	30
total	80	177

Result

Final score

80 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 109.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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