FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

50.59 – 55.5

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

117 – 38

Prediction missed · off by 42 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 409 ±10.5

9072TigerBots

Season APEX 254.7Event APEX 37.14Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5243Aegis

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 16.86Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2186Dogs of Steel

Season APEX 57.1Event APEX -3.41Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 187.2 ±11

4638Jagbots

Season APEX 53Event APEX 37.14Rank 11Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

8326Hopper Robotics

Season APEX 38.5Event APEX 4.36Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2890The Hawk Collective

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 14Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9072, 5243, 2186

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9072, 5243, 2186

Auto

15.5 32%

Teleop

26.1 53%

Endgame

7.2 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4638, 8326, 2890

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4638, 8326, 2890

Auto

17.8 33%

Teleop

24.7 46%

Endgame

11.6 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.42 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score50.6pts

Blue projected score55.5pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 19%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -4.9
Score range: 40–67
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 155 vs event baseline 60.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

409Season APEX187.2

15.5Auto17.8

26.1Teleop24.7

7.2Endgame11.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	22
teleop	86	6
endgame	12	0
foul	5	10
total	117	38

Result

Final score

117 – 38

Prediction missed · off by 42 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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