FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

35.59 – 86.84

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

22 – 48

Prediction correct · off by 26.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 141.4 ±12.7

2186Dogs of Steel

Season APEX 57.1Event APEX 18.64Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10449Robo Crusaders 1

Season APEX 35Event APEX 0.93Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1885Comet Robotics

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 16.02Rank 35Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 279.4 ±11.6

539Titan Robotics

Season APEX 51Event APEX 39.09Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6882Fahrenheit Robotics

Season APEX 69.8Event APEX 32.47Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

122NASA Knights

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 15.28Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2186, 10449, 1885

/ 100 compat

Projected

35.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2186, 10449, 1885

Auto

8.0 27%

Teleop

15.7 54%

Endgame

5.4 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 539, 6882, 122

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 539, 6882, 122

Auto

19.6 25%

Teleop

30.4 38%

Endgame

29.3 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.07 · Blue 1.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score35.6pts

Blue projected score86.8pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -51.2
Score range: 15–108
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 70 vs event baseline 115.7.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

141.4Season APEX279.4

8Auto19.6

15.7Teleop30.4

5.4Endgame29.3

54Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	5
teleop	11	23
endgame	5	10
foul	0	10
total	22	48

Result

Final score

22 – 48

Prediction correct · off by 26.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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