FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Final · Finals 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

249.08 – 194.1

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

217 – 203

Prediction correct · off by 20.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 578.4 ±9.3

9072TigerBots

Season APEX 254.7Event APEX 113.92Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2068Metal Jackets

Season APEX 92.8Event APEX 33.51Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1908ShoreBots

Season APEX 230.9Event APEX 101.65Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 531.8 ±9.9

539Titan Robotics

Season APEX 51Event APEX 38.88Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1731Fresta Valley Robotics Club

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 85.81Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5338RoboLoCo

Season APEX 251Event APEX 69.41Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9072, 2068, 1908

/ 100 compat

Projected

249.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9072, 2068, 1908

Auto

55.1 23%

Teleop

144.5 61%

Endgame

38.3 16%

Strengths

· 9072 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 539, 1731, 5338

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 539, 1731, 5338

Auto

41.5 23%

Teleop

84.8 46%

Endgame

57.9 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score249.1pts

Blue projected score194.1pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 55
Score range: 173–270
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 420 vs event baseline 114.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

578.4Season APEX531.8

55.1Auto41.5

144.5Teleop84.8

38.3Endgame57.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	46
teleop	133	61
endgame	2	91
foul	30	5
total	217	203

Result

Final score

217 – 203

Prediction correct · off by 20.5 pts

Match videos

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