FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

248.44 – 185.33

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

242 – 262

Prediction missed · off by 41.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 578.4 ±9.3

9072TigerBots

Season APEX 254.7Event APEX 113.81Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2068Metal Jackets

Season APEX 92.8Event APEX 33.17Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1908ShoreBots

Season APEX 230.9Event APEX 101.46Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 531.8 ±9.9

539Titan Robotics

Season APEX 51Event APEX 35.99Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1731Fresta Valley Robotics Club

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 82.86Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5338RoboLoCo

Season APEX 251Event APEX 66.48Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9072, 2068, 1908

/ 100 compat

Projected

248.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9072, 2068, 1908

Auto

54.3 23%

Teleop

145.9 62%

Endgame

36.7 15%

Strengths

· 9072 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 539, 1731, 5338

/ 100 compat

Projected

185.3 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 539, 1731, 5338

Auto

40.3 23%

Teleop

82.6 47%

Endgame

54.3 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.75 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score248.4pts

Blue projected score185.3pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 63.1
Score range: 165–268
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 504 vs event baseline 111.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

578.4Season APEX531.8

54.3Auto40.3

145.9Teleop82.6

36.7Endgame54.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	59
teleop	127	101
endgame	46	97
foul	15	5
total	242	262

Result

Final score

242 – 262

Prediction missed · off by 41.6 pts

Match videos

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