Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

230.74 – 213.66

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

294 – 116

Prediction correct · off by 80.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 446.8 ±12.2

4550Something's Bruin

Season APEX 65.6Event APEX 15.11Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3245Ravens

Season APEX 194Event APEX 108.6Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6487Clockwork Knights

Season APEX 187.2Event APEX 107.03Rank 11Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 299.9 ±13.3

1891Bullbots

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 56.81Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3424Corax

Season APEX 119.3Event APEX 66.32Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

1708AMP'D Robotics

Season APEX 76Event APEX 90.53Rank 28Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4550, 3245, 6487

/ 100 compat

Projected

230.7 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 4550, 3245, 6487

Auto

30.3 13%

Teleop

150.2 67%

Endgame

45.1 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1891, 3424, 1708

/ 100 compat

Projected

213.7 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 1891, 3424, 1708

Auto

27.7 13%

Teleop

123.4 58%

Endgame

60.3 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score230.7pts

Blue projected score213.7pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 17.1
Score range: 178–267
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 410 vs event baseline 201.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

446.8Season APEX299.9

30.3Auto27.7

150.2Teleop123.4

45.1Endgame60.3

37Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	80	31
teleop	170	27
endgame	44	58
foul	0	0
total	294	116

Result

Final score

294 – 116

Prediction correct · off by 80.5 pts

Match videos

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