Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

421.96 – 285.72

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

329 – 84

Prediction correct · off by 147.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 683 ±11.2

3006Red Rock Robotics

Season APEX 276.8Event APEX 217.79Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2972Gears and Buccaneers

Season APEX 116.6Event APEX 20.28Rank 38Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2122Team Tators

Season APEX 289.6Event APEX 183.89Rank 8Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 540.5 ±11.7

10933Tie Dye Samurai

Season APEX 42.3Event APEX -14.22Rank 39Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3243Amperes

Season APEX 219.5Event APEX 107.9Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7183W.A.R.

Season APEX 278.7Event APEX 192.04Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3006, 2972, 2122

/ 100 compat

Projected

422 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3006, 2972, 2122

Auto

93.4 23%

Teleop

232.4 57%

Endgame

83.8 20%

Strengths

· 3006 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10933, 3243, 7183

/ 100 compat

Projected

285.7 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 10933, 3243, 7183

Auto

27.8 10%

Teleop

175.9 64%

Endgame

70.0 26%

Strengths

· 7183 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.31 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score422pts

Blue projected score285.7pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 136.2
Score range: 250–458
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 413 vs event baseline 201.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

683Season APEX540.5

93.4Auto27.8

232.4Teleop175.9

83.8Endgame70

0Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	110	28
teleop	93	52
endgame	126	4
foul	0	0
total	329	84

Result

Final score

329 – 84

Prediction correct · off by 147.3 pts

Match videos

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