Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

207.36 – 209.28

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

214 – 189

Prediction missed · off by 13.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 299.9 ±13.3

1891Bullbots

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 52.97Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3424Corax

Season APEX 119.3Event APEX 63.49Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

1708AMP'D Robotics

Season APEX 76Event APEX 90.9Rank 28Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 413.2 ±13.3

4175Coded Summit

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 85.74Rank 22Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

2726Red Pebble Rebels

Season APEX 158.9Event APEX 41.74Rank 9Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 97

9277Sparkans

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 81.8Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1891, 3424, 1708

/ 100 compat

Projected

207.4 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 1891, 3424, 1708

Auto

26.6 13%

Teleop

118.9 58%

Endgame

59.2 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4175, 2726, 9277

/ 100 compat

Projected

209.3 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 4175, 2726, 9277

Auto

40.3 20%

Teleop

109.3 54%

Endgame

53.0 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score207.4pts

Blue projected score209.3pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -1.9
Score range: 171–245
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 403 vs event baseline 199.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

299.9Season APEX413.2

26.6Auto40.3

118.9Teleop109.3

59.2Endgame53

44Consistency11

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	47
teleop	128	83
endgame	54	59
foul	0	0
total	214	189

Result

Final score

214 – 189

Prediction missed · off by 13.5 pts

Match videos

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