Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

207.52 – 275.47

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

172 – 253

Prediction correct · off by 29 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 270.8 ±14.8

9726Notus Pirates

Season APEX 161.1Event APEX 148.76Rank 14Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3288Punchers

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 29.44Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4598ICARUS INNOVATED

Season APEX 49Event APEX 29.32Rank 12Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 419.9 ±17.5

10988Desert Storm

Season APEX 167.1Event APEX 103.84Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

8839Shoshone Robotics

Season APEX 156.5Event APEX 112.86Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

10256Team Scrap Metal

Season APEX 96.3Event APEX 58.77Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9726, 3288, 4598

/ 100 compat

Projected

207.5 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9726, 3288, 4598

Auto

33.7 16%

Teleop

121.9 59%

Endgame

50.4 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10988, 8839, 10256

/ 100 compat

Projected

275.5 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 10988, 8839, 10256

Auto

36.7 13%

Teleop

178.6 65%

Endgame

58.9 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.29 · Blue 2.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score207.5pts

Blue projected score275.5pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -68
Score range: 172–311
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 425 vs event baseline 199.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

270.8Season APEX419.9

33.7Auto36.7

121.9Teleop178.6

50.4Endgame58.9

1Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	29
teleop	98	140
endgame	35	84
foul	0	0
total	172	253

Result

Final score

172 – 253

Prediction correct · off by 29 pts

Match videos

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