Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

295.01 – 230.11

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

244 – 140

Prediction correct · off by 70.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 540.5 ±11.7

10933Tie Dye Samurai

Season APEX 42.3Event APEX -11.73Rank 39Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3243Amperes

Season APEX 219.5Event APEX 111.34Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7183W.A.R.

Season APEX 278.7Event APEX 195.4Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 413.2 ±13.3

4175Coded Summit

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 93.02Rank 22Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

2726Red Pebble Rebels

Season APEX 158.9Event APEX 49.04Rank 9Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 97

9277Sparkans

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 88.05Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10933, 3243, 7183

/ 100 compat

Projected

295 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 10933, 3243, 7183

Auto

31.1 11%

Teleop

186.4 64%

Endgame

76.0 26%

Strengths

· 7183 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4175, 2726, 9277

/ 100 compat

Projected

230.1 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 4175, 2726, 9277

Auto

40.1 18%

Teleop

120.1 54%

Endgame

60.3 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.04 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score295pts

Blue projected score230.1pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 64.9
Score range: 194–331
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 384 vs event baseline 199.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

540.5Season APEX413.2

31.1Auto40.1

186.4Teleop120.1

76Endgame60.3

52Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	40
teleop	134	71
endgame	47	29
foul	45	0
total	244	140

Result

Final score

244 – 140

Prediction correct · off by 70.6 pts

Match videos

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