Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

433.01 – 197.43

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

370 – 232

Prediction correct · off by 48.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 683 ±11.2

3006Red Rock Robotics

Season APEX 276.8Event APEX 220.51Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2972Gears and Buccaneers

Season APEX 116.6Event APEX 25.6Rank 38Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2122Team Tators

Season APEX 289.6Event APEX 186.9Rank 8Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 299.9 ±13.3

1708AMP'D Robotics

Season APEX 76Event APEX 88.4Rank 28Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1891Bullbots

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 48.99Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3424Corax

Season APEX 119.3Event APEX 60.04Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3006, 2972, 2122

/ 100 compat

Projected

433 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 3006, 2972, 2122

Auto

98.8 23%

Teleop

244.6 57%

Endgame

84.1 20%

Strengths

· 3006 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1708, 1891, 3424

/ 100 compat

Projected

197.4 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 1708, 1891, 3424

Auto

21.1 11%

Teleop

122.7 63%

Endgame

50.1 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.52 · Blue 0.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score433pts

Blue projected score197.4pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 235.6
Score range: 161–469
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 602 vs event baseline 198.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

683Season APEX299.9

98.8Auto21.1

244.6Teleop122.7

84.1Endgame50.1

1Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	72	42
teleop	178	102
endgame	80	83
foul	40	5
total	370	232

Result

Final score

370 – 232

Prediction correct · off by 48.8 pts

Match videos

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