Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

274.38 – 206.95

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

273 – 325

Prediction missed · off by 59.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 419.9 ±17.5

10988Desert Storm

Season APEX 167.1Event APEX 101.47Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

8839Shoshone Robotics

Season APEX 156.5Event APEX 115.41Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

10256Team Scrap Metal

Season APEX 96.3Event APEX 57.5Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 446.8 ±12.2

4550Something's Bruin

Season APEX 65.6Event APEX 6.77Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3245Ravens

Season APEX 194Event APEX 101.61Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6487Clockwork Knights

Season APEX 187.2Event APEX 98.57Rank 11Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10988, 8839, 10256

/ 100 compat

Projected

274.4 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 10988, 8839, 10256

Auto

35.4 13%

Teleop

189.6 69%

Endgame

50.8 18%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4550, 3245, 6487

/ 100 compat

Projected

207 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 4550, 3245, 6487

Auto

29.8 15%

Teleop

133.7 65%

Endgame

41.1 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.08 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score274.4pts

Blue projected score207pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 67.4
Score range: 172–309
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 598 vs event baseline 196.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

419.9Season APEX446.8

35.4Auto29.8

189.6Teleop133.7

50.8Endgame41.1

0Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	44
teleop	138	201
endgame	82	75
foul	15	5
total	273	325

Result

Final score

273 – 325

Prediction missed · off by 59.7 pts

Match videos

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