Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

506.26 – 214.69

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

530 – 189

Prediction correct · off by 24.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 601.4 ±11

359Hawaiian Kids

Season APEX 268.2Event APEX 235.2Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5071Charger Robotics

Season APEX 48.2Event APEX 41.66Rank 37Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 83

7426PAIR OF DICE ROBOTICS

Season APEX 285Event APEX 229.4Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 270.8 ±14.8

9726Notus Pirates

Season APEX 161.1Event APEX 150.09Rank 14Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3288Punchers

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 31.61Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4598ICARUS INNOVATED

Season APEX 49Event APEX 32.99Rank 12Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 359, 5071, 7426

/ 100 compat

Projected

506.3 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 359, 5071, 7426

Auto

84.8 17%

Teleop

305.4 60%

Endgame

116.4 23%

Strengths

· 359 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9726, 3288, 4598

/ 100 compat

Projected

214.7 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 9726, 3288, 4598

Auto

34.1 16%

Teleop

136.5 64%

Endgame

44.3 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.56 · Blue 0.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score506.3pts

Blue projected score214.7pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 291.6
Score range: 180–541
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 719 vs event baseline 194.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

601.4Season APEX270.8

84.8Auto34.1

305.4Teleop136.5

116.4Endgame44.3

9Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	116	35
teleop	310	73
endgame	89	66
foul	15	15
total	530	189

Result

Final score

530 – 189

Prediction correct · off by 24.7 pts

Match videos

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