Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

418.86 – 239.7

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

390 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 36.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 601.4 ±11

359Hawaiian Kids

Season APEX 268.2Event APEX 205.51Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5071Charger Robotics

Season APEX 48.2Event APEX 13.93Rank 37Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 83

7426PAIR OF DICE ROBOTICS

Season APEX 285Event APEX 199.42Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 446.8 ±12.2

4550Something's Bruin

Season APEX 65.6Event APEX 19.91Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3245Ravens

Season APEX 194Event APEX 111.49Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6487Clockwork Knights

Season APEX 187.2Event APEX 108.3Rank 11Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 359, 5071, 7426

/ 100 compat

Projected

418.9 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 359, 5071, 7426

Auto

88.6 19%

Teleop

281.8 61%

Endgame

89.6 19%

Strengths

· 359 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4550, 3245, 6487

/ 100 compat

Projected

239.7 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 4550, 3245, 6487

Auto

38.4 16%

Teleop

151.9 65%

Endgame

43.8 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.42 · Blue 0.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score418.9pts

Blue projected score239.7pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 179.2
Score range: 204–455
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 586 vs event baseline 200.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

601.4Season APEX446.8

88.6Auto38.4

281.8Teleop151.9

89.6Endgame43.8

0Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	122	51
teleop	191	95
endgame	77	50
foul	0	0
total	390	196

Result

Final score

390 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 36.3 pts