Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

266.44 – 246.74

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

72 – 195

Prediction missed · off by 123.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 540.5 ±11.7

10933Tie Dye Samurai

Season APEX 42.3Event APEX -20.98Rank 39Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3243Amperes

Season APEX 219.5Event APEX 99.57Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7183W.A.R.

Season APEX 278.7Event APEX 187.85Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 446.8 ±12.2

4550Something's Bruin

Season APEX 65.6Event APEX 22.13Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3245Ravens

Season APEX 194Event APEX 113.95Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6487Clockwork Knights

Season APEX 187.2Event APEX 110.66Rank 11Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10933, 3243, 7183

/ 100 compat

Projected

266.4 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10933, 3243, 7183

Auto

30.7 12%

Teleop

164.4 64%

Endgame

62.1 24%

Strengths

· 7183 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4550, 3245, 6487

/ 100 compat

Projected

246.7 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 4550, 3245, 6487

Auto

38.7 16%

Teleop

155.8 65%

Endgame

45.7 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.78 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score266.4pts

Blue projected score246.7pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 19.7
Score range: 211–302
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 267 vs event baseline 201.1.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

540.5Season APEX446.8

30.7Auto38.7

164.4Teleop155.8

62.1Endgame45.7

27Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	36
teleop	32	127
endgame	16	32
foul	0	0
total	72	195

Result

Final score

72 – 195

Prediction missed · off by 123.1 pts

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.