Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

496.12 – 406.13

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

0 – 150

Prediction missed · off by 376.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 601.4 ±11

359Hawaiian Kids

Season APEX 268.2Event APEX 229.7Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5071Charger Robotics

Season APEX 48.2Event APEX 39.63Rank 37Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 83

7426PAIR OF DICE ROBOTICS

Season APEX 285Event APEX 226.79Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 683 ±11.2

3006Red Rock Robotics

Season APEX 276.8Event APEX 212.01Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2972Gears and Buccaneers

Season APEX 116.6Event APEX 14.41Rank 38Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2122Team Tators

Season APEX 289.6Event APEX 179.71Rank 8Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 359, 5071, 7426

/ 100 compat

Projected

496.1 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 359, 5071, 7426

Auto

92.9 19%

Teleop

304.8 62%

Endgame

96.3 19%

Strengths

· 359 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3006, 2972, 2122

/ 100 compat

Projected

406.1 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3006, 2972, 2122

Auto

95.8 24%

Teleop

208.2 53%

Endgame

91.6 23%

Strengths

· 3006 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.12 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score496.1pts

Blue projected score406.1pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 90
Score range: 370–532
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 150 vs event baseline 202.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

601.4Season APEX683

92.9Auto95.8

304.8Teleop208.2

96.3Endgame91.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	66	41
teleop	156	94
endgame	53	0
foul	0	15
total	0	150

Result

Final score

0 – 150

Prediction missed · off by 376.1 pts

Match videos

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