Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

250.46 – 274.74

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

327 – 294

Prediction missed · off by 47.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 540.5 ±11.7

10933Tie Dye Samurai

Season APEX 42.3Event APEX -26.42Rank 39Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3243Amperes

Season APEX 219.5Event APEX 95.68Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7183W.A.R.

Season APEX 278.7Event APEX 181.2Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 419.9 ±17.5

10256Team Scrap Metal

Season APEX 96.3Event APEX 58.9Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

8839Shoshone Robotics

Season APEX 156.5Event APEX 112.1Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

10988Desert Storm

Season APEX 167.1Event APEX 103.74Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10933, 3243, 7183

/ 100 compat

Projected

250.5 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 10933, 3243, 7183

Auto

27.5 11%

Teleop

155.9 65%

Endgame

57.0 24%

Strengths

· 7183 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10256, 8839, 10988

/ 100 compat

Projected

274.7 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10256, 8839, 10988

Auto

34.6 13%

Teleop

174.6 64%

Endgame

64.3 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score250.5pts

Blue projected score274.7pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -24.3
Score range: 214–311
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 621 vs event baseline 201.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

540.5Season APEX419.9

27.5Auto34.6

155.9Teleop174.6

57Endgame64.3

40Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	39
teleop	199	163
endgame	84	92
foul	0	0
total	327	294

Result

Final score

327 – 294

Prediction missed · off by 47.9 pts

Match videos

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