Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

115.22 – 68.93

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

50 – 174

Prediction missed · off by 85.1 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 317.4 ±13.9

9277Sparkans

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 82.36Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5933JudgeMent Call Robotics

Season APEX 59.9Event APEX 16.29Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

1569Haywire Robotics

Season APEX 82Event APEX 16.57Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 297.5 ±15.6

3245Ravens

Season APEX 194Event APEX 41.22Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7634New Hawks

Provisional

Season APEX 41.9Event APEX 16.57Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

74368-Bit Miners

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 11.14Rank 32Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9277, 5933, 1569

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.2 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 9277, 5933, 1569

Auto

21.2 19%

Teleop

66.1 60%

Endgame

22.8 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3245, 7634, 7436

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.9 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3245, 7634, 7436

Auto

8.4 13%

Teleop

29.3 46%

Endgame

26.2 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.9 · Blue 1.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score115.2pts

Blue projected score68.9pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 46.3
Score range: 38–146
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 224 vs event baseline 171.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

317.4Season APEX297.5

21.2Auto8.4

66.1Teleop29.3

22.8Endgame26.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	22
teleop	21	102
endgame	7	30
foul	0	20
total	50	174

Result

Final score

50 – 174

Prediction missed · off by 85.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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