Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

146.29 – 157.43

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

348 – 195

Prediction missed · off by 119.6 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 504.4 ±13.6

359Hawaiian Kids

Season APEX 268.2Event APEX 20.86Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4598ICARUS INNOVATED

Season APEX 49Event APEX 72.57Rank 12Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

6487Clockwork Knights

Season APEX 187.2Event APEX 52.86Rank 11Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 285.4 ±15.8

11100Team Epsilon

Season APEX 68.2Event APEX 47.71Rank 41Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 89

3288Punchers

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 20.86Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8839Shoshone Robotics

Season APEX 156.5Event APEX 88.86Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 359, 4598, 6487

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.3 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 359, 4598, 6487

Auto

16.9 12%

Teleop

75.2 52%

Endgame

52.9 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11100, 3288, 8839

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.4 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 11100, 3288, 8839

Auto

25.1 17%

Teleop

78.6 52%

Endgame

46.6 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.6 · Blue 1.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score146.3pts

Blue projected score157.4pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -11.1
Score range: 118–185
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 543 vs event baseline 157.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

504.4Season APEX285.4

16.9Auto25.1

75.2Teleop78.6

52.9Endgame46.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	21
teleop	260	107
endgame	17	67
foul	0	0
total	348	195

Result

Final score

348 – 195

Prediction missed · off by 119.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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