Qualification · Qualification 69

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

213.68 – 74.38

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

271 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 34 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 404.2 ±14.5

4598ICARUS INNOVATED

Season APEX 49Event APEX 27.6Rank 12Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

4550Something's Bruin

Season APEX 65.6Event APEX 2.67Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2122Team Tators

Season APEX 289.6Event APEX 183.41Rank 8Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 219.6 ±18.6

9138Robo Hawks

Provisional

Season APEX 28.5Event APEX 0.23Rank 42Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7755Phantom Circuits

Season APEX 94.8Event APEX 17.91Rank 17Record 5-4-1Status establishedConfidence 92

10256Team Scrap Metal

Season APEX 96.3Event APEX 56.24Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4598, 4550, 2122

/ 100 compat

Projected

213.7 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4598, 4550, 2122

Auto

52.8 25%

Teleop

113.9 53%

Endgame

48.5 23%

Strengths

· 2122 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9138, 7755, 10256

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.4 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 9138, 7755, 10256

Auto

11.7 16%

Teleop

52.3 71%

Endgame

9.2 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.26 · Blue 0.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score213.7pts

Blue projected score74.4pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 139.3
Score range: 39–249
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 356 vs event baseline 194.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

404.2Season APEX219.6

52.8Auto11.7

113.9Teleop52.3

48.5Endgame9.2

0Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	69	20
teleop	156	62
endgame	31	3
foul	15	0
total	271	85

Result

Final score

271 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 34 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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