Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

353.13 – 363.55

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

303 – 346

Prediction correct · off by 33.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 523.8 ±12.1

6487Clockwork Knights

Season APEX 187.2Event APEX 104.55Rank 11Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

9277Sparkans

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 93.37Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9726Notus Pirates

Season APEX 161.1Event APEX 155.21Rank 14Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 513.7 ±12.4

74368-Bit Miners

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 25.92Rank 32Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10988Desert Storm

Season APEX 167.1Event APEX 104.7Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

7426PAIR OF DICE ROBOTICS

Season APEX 285Event APEX 232.93Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6487, 9277, 9726

/ 100 compat

Projected

353.1 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 6487, 9277, 9726

Auto

84.0 24%

Teleop

206.6 59%

Endgame

57.1 16%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7436, 10988, 7426

/ 100 compat

Projected

363.6 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 7436, 10988, 7426

Auto

46.4 13%

Teleop

221.7 61%

Endgame

92.4 26%

Strengths

· 7426 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.72 · Blue 1.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score353.1pts

Blue projected score363.6pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -10.4
Score range: 318–399
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 649 vs event baseline 192.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

523.8Season APEX513.7

84Auto46.4

206.6Teleop221.7

57.1Endgame92.4

35Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	53
teleop	167	207
endgame	111	86
foul	5	0
total	303	346

Result

Final score

303 – 346

Prediction correct · off by 33.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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