Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

197.77 – 140.63

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

282 – 78

Prediction correct · off by 73.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 403.3 ±16.2

9037HHS Black Ops

Season APEX 82.7Event APEX 10.44Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

7634New Hawks

Provisional

Season APEX 41.9Event APEX 0.87Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7183W.A.R.

Season APEX 278.7Event APEX 186.46Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 261.4 ±15.8

8839Shoshone Robotics

Season APEX 156.5Event APEX 121.42Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

8885Socratic Schematics

Season APEX 41.2Event APEX -1.71Rank 35Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

1566AMMOKNIGHTS

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 20.92Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9037, 7634, 7183

/ 100 compat

Projected

197.8 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9037, 7634, 7183

Auto

24.2 12%

Teleop

116.1 59%

Endgame

55.5 28%

Strengths

· 7183 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8839, 8885, 1566

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.6 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 8839, 8885, 1566

Auto

32.5 24%

Teleop

84.8 63%

Endgame

17.2 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.02 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score197.8pts

Blue projected score140.6pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 57.1
Score range: 106–233
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 360 vs event baseline 192.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

403.3Season APEX261.4

24.2Auto32.5

116.1Teleop84.8

55.5Endgame17.2

103Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	30
teleop	119	41
endgame	56	7
foul	50	0
total	282	78

Result

Final score

282 – 78

Prediction correct · off by 73.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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