Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

167.84 – 78.05

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

137 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 34.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 353.9 ±16.2

7906Underdogs

Provisional

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 48.04Rank 19Record 5-4-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

3245Ravens

Season APEX 194Event APEX 104.73Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10384Sparkanovas

Season APEX 76.5Event APEX 15.07Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 263.5 ±13.3

2972Gears and Buccaneers

Season APEX 116.6Event APEX 31.61Rank 38Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10933Tie Dye Samurai

Season APEX 42.3Event APEX -6.51Rank 39Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1891Bullbots

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 52.95Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7906, 3245, 10384

/ 100 compat

Projected

167.8 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 7906, 3245, 10384

Auto

33.6 21%

Teleop

108.7 68%

Endgame

16.8 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2972, 10933, 1891

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.1 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 2972, 10933, 1891

Auto

23.9 33%

Teleop

42.0 58%

Endgame

5.9 8%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.16 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score167.8pts

Blue projected score78.1pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 89.8
Score range: 43–203
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 176 vs event baseline 193.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

353.9Season APEX263.5

33.6Auto23.9

108.7Teleop42

16.8Endgame5.9

0Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	17
teleop	64	12
endgame	32	10
foul	15	0
total	137	39

Result

Final score

137 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 34.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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